Weekly Gold Price Prediction: Jul 28 to Aug 3, 2025

Gold Price Forecast: Why Gold Slipped Below $3350

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Gold prices dropped sharply below the crucial $3350 resistance level this week, influenced by a stronger US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and improved global risk sentiment. 

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The easing of trade tensions, particularly between the US, China, and the EU, led investors to move capital away from safe-haven assets like gold.

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Trade Talk Impact on Gold Prices

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The gold market correction was largely driven by geopolitical optimism. US President Donald Trump hinted at tariff reductions for nations expanding access to US markets. 

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A newly signed Japan trade agreement is now the reference model for ongoing US-EU trade negotiations.

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Key Insight: If EU-US trade agreements mirror Japan’s terms, gold could remain under pressure due to higher market confidence and reduced economic uncertainty.

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Weak US Housing Data Supports Bearish Sentiment

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Data released last week revealed that US housing market stress persists:

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• June home sales (both new and existing) underperformed expectations.
  
  
• Durable goods orders declined, hinting at weaker Q2 equipment investment.
  
  

These signals point to broader macroeconomic weakness, but not enough to immediately boost gold demand—yet.

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Central Bank News: ECB, BoE, and Their Market Effects

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• The European Central Bank (ECB) held its deposit rate at 2.00%.
  
  
• The UK’s July PMI data indicated modest economic improvement.
  
  
• Markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in August, adding to the complex mix influencing precious metals.

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Risk-On Sentiment & Trump's Japan Deal Shift Market Dynamics

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Midweek, President Trump declared a “massive deal” with Japan:

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• $550 billion Japanese investment in the US.
  
  
• Tariffs on Japanese goods dropped to 15%, down from 25%.
  
  

This announcement strengthened the USD and deepened the gold correction, especially for gold futures traders watching market volatility.

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What's Ahead: Key Economic Events That May Move Gold

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1. US-China Trade Talks

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Fresh talks are set to begin with a focus on technology and market access—key areas influencing investor confidence.

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2. US Federal Reserve Policy Meeting (July 29–30)

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• No rate cut expected this month.
  
  
• However, market odds for a September hold have increased to 40% (up from 10%).

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3. US Q2 GDP Release

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After a 0.5% contraction in Q1, expectations are for a rebound. However, another weak print could trigger USD weakness and support gold bullishness.

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4. US Jobs Report (July)

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• If Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) > 100K → USD strength may continue.
  
  
• If < 70K → We could see gold demand surge ahead of the weekend.

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Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Builds

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Gold is showing signs of bearish reversal on the weekly chart:

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• Failed to hold above $3400.
  
  
• Formed a bearish inverted hammer pattern.
  
  
• Broke below both the triangle formation and 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3340.
  
  
• RSI dipped below 50, indicating fading bullish strength.
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Key Support Levels to Watch:

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• $3292 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
  
  
• $3228 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
  
  
• Extended downside risk: $3200 zone
  
  

Tip for traders: Watch for any break below these levels for potential short entries.

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Disclaimer: This report contains opinions, which are not to be construed as investment advice. We cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. 

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The opinions mentioned above are based on information that is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. 

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The information contained in this report is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management, or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purposes and are not to be construed as investment advice.